Tax Reform Planning Windows: the 2026–2033 Calendar

The tax reform transition (2026–2033) is not a single event, but a sequence of planning windows with an expiration date. These are decisions that, taken in time, preserve benefits, recover credits and reduce the tax burden; missed, they become a permanent cost. The most urgent ones already have a date: enrollment in the federal tax settlement closes on September 30, 2026; the first Simples Nacional regime election for 2027 falls in September 2026; qualification for the ICMS Tax Benefits Compensation Fund ends in December 2028; the use of credit balances must be resolved before the 2033 turnover.

• Federal tax settlement — by 30/09/2026
• Simples Decision 2027 — by 30/09/2026
• Federal incentives — in 2026 (IRPJ 01/01; CSLL, PIS/Cofins and IPI 01/04)
• New ITCMD — in 2026, before the state laws
• Dividends (Lei 15.270/2025) — recurring, monthly decision
• ICMS benefits / FCBF — qualification by 31/12/2028
• Credit balances — use by 31/12/2032
• Litigation theories — file before the STF modulation
• Broad financial credit — from 2027 on

The TaxUp team has organized these decisions into a single calendar. Below are nine windows — from the one that closes first to the most structural — each with its deadline, who decides within the company, the legal basis and the costliest mistake to avoid. The thread that ties them all together is simple to state and hard to execute: in the reform, the cost of not deciding has a fixed date.

Why the reform is a sequence of deadlines, not an event

The dominant reading treats the reform as a single date in the future: 2033, when the dual VAT enters full force and ICMS, ISS, PIS and Cofins disappear. That reading delays decisions. The real design of the transition spreads triggers across seven years, and several of them close well before 2033 — some as early as 2026.

There are three clocks running in parallel. The first is the replacement of the taxes: CBS begins to be charged in full in 2027, with the extinction of PIS and Cofins; ICMS and ISS recede in annual fractions from 2029 to 2032 and are extinguished in 2033, giving way to IBS. The second is the administrative doors with their own deadlines: qualifications, regime elections, settlement programs, all with a calendar that does not wait for the turnover. The third is the changes running parallel to the consumption reform — the new taxation of profits and dividends and the overhaul of the ITCMD —, which advanced in 2025 and 2026 and opened windows for asset reorganization that close on their own.

Whoever plans looking only at 2033 misses the other two clocks. The pages that follow walk through each window in the order in which the hand reaches it.

The nine windows, in order of urgency

The table below summarizes the calendar. It is the map; the sections that follow are the territory.

Window 1 — Tax settlement: clearing the liability by September 30, 2026

Entering the new system carrying old tax liabilities is starting the race with a weight on your foot. The Office of the Attorney General of the National Treasury reopened, with Notice PGDAU No. 6/2026, a window to negotiate debts registered as overdue federal debt, with discounts that turn cleaning up the balance sheet into a financial decision, not just a legal one.

The core terms: enrollment through the Regularize portal by September 30, 2026, for debts registered as overdue debt up to March 3, 2026; discounts of up to 100% on interest, penalties and legal charges, subject to limits of 65% to 70% of the total amount depending on the taxpayer profile and the modality; a down payment starting at 5% to 6% of the consolidated amount, with the balance paid in installments. Enrollment requires including all eligible registrations and waiving the lawsuits that dispute the settled debts.

The strategic point connecting this window to the reform: the tax liability tends to become more visible, not less, with the digitalization of the new system and the split payment. Cleaning it up now, with the discount of an open notice, is better than carrying the dispute into an environment of greater traceability. The case-by-case reading — which debts to include, which modality, what the effect of waiving the lawsuits is — is the work of tax litigation.

Go deeper: the tax settlement under Notice PGDAU 6/2026 →

Window 2 — Simples Decision 2027: the regime election of September 2026

The reform changes the arithmetic of who buys from whom. Under the new model, the purchaser only takes a full IBS and CBS credit if the supplier collects these taxes under the regular regime. A company under the Simples Nacional regime (Brazil’s simplified tax regime for small business), which collects everything within the DAS, generates limited credit for the buyer — which can make it more expensive, for a client under the Lucro Real or Presumido regimes, to buy from it instead of from a competitor outside Simples.

LC 214/2025 opened an exit in art. 41, §3º: the election of the regular IBS and CBS regime — nicknamed in the market the Simples Decision 2027 —, in which the Simples company keeps the other taxes within the DAS but assesses and collects IBS and CBS under the regular regime, becoming able to pass a full credit to the purchaser. For those who sell to other companies (B2B), this election can be the difference between keeping and losing clients from 2027 on.

The first election, governed by Resolution CGSN No. 186/2026, takes place between September 1 and 30, 2026 and is valid for January through June 2027. The following windows still depend on CGSN regulation — there is talk of a tendency for September to apply to the following semester and March to the other, but this has not yet been set out in rules. Lucro Real and Presumido companies are already operating in 2026 with the CBS and IBS test rates, which provides a laboratory to calibrate the choice.

The analysis is one of tax regime planning, and the most common mistake is treating Simples as an automatic decision to stay. From 2027 on, staying without simulating may be silently costing clients.

Go deeper: the Simples decision on IBS and CBS →

Window 3 — Federal incentives: the door narrowing in 2026

Federal incentives were not abolished by the reform, but they changed their rules and their point of entry. Those who already have an approved project preserve the right; those who were about to enter now find the window narrower.

Two movements matter to the decision-maker. The first is the investment subsidy regime of Lei No. 14.789/2023, which replaced the former exclusion of subsidies from the IRPJ/CSLL base with a tax credit model, conditioned on prior qualification before the Federal Revenue Service and on requirements for implementing or expanding the enterprise. This regime has a defined window of use and requires the company to be qualified and to have the project documentation in order.

The second is the reduction of benefits under LC No. 224/2025 — on the order of 10% of the advantage of each incentive, applied cumulatively and differentiated by type. The law does not name SUDAM, SUDENE or the REIDI, but these benefits are reached by the general scope of its art. 4 (the Federal Revenue Service confirms the impact on the REIDI). The preservation rule is specific: benefits with a fixed term whose holder has already met the onerous condition — defined as investment in a project approved by the federal Executive by December 31, 2025 — escape the reduction; being merely under execution is not enough. In other words, the project approval date has come to define the size of the incentive the company will enjoy over the coming years.

Go deeper: federal tax incentives in the reform →

Window 4 — Succession and holdings before the new ITCMD

The consumption reform monopolized attention, but the change that weighs most heavily on the assets of many business families is that of the ITCMD, the tax on inheritance and gifts. EC 132/2023 made progressivity mandatory in all states, and LC No. 227/2026 established that the tax base becomes the market value of the assets and rights transferred. For holding company shares, the base becomes the net equity adjusted to market value, plus goodwill — which erodes the main historical advantage of the asset holding company, which was to transfer shares at book value.

The window arises from the lag between the national rule, already in force, and the state legislation that applies it. Each state must enact its own law, subject to the annual anteriority rule and the ninety-day rule, to implement full progressivity and the new market base. As long as this does not happen, there is a window — concentrated in 2026 — to reorganize assets, structure gifts and bring forward succession moves on even more favorable bases. The gift with reserved usufruct also changes: LC 227/2026 removes the ITCMD on the extinction of the usufruct, so that the tax is paid only once, at the time of the gift, on the value of the bare ownership transferred — no longer in two stages. The base is not the full value of the asset.

This is, possibly, the highest-value-per-decision topic in this calendar, and the one with the quietest window: there is no notice and no warning: it closes when the state publishes its law. The work combines tax planning and the structuring of holdings.

Go deeper: the new ITCMD at market value and holdings →

Window 5 — Dividends under Lei 15.270

After nearly three decades of unrestricted exemption, the distribution of profits is taxed again. Lei No. 15.270/2025, in force since January 1, 2026, established a 10% withholding at source when the same legal entity pays, in the same month, R$ 50 thousand or more in dividends to the same individual, and created a minimum tax on high incomes (IRPFM), with mechanisms to avoid excessive combined taxation at the company and partner level.

The window for pure anticipation has already closed — profits assessed up to 2025 remain exempt from the withholding only if the distribution was approved by resolution by December 31, 2025 and the payment occurs by 2028. What remains open, and is now permanent, is the architecture of the distribution: the dividend policy, the design of the flow throughout the year and the combination of management compensation and profits now have a direct tax effect. Corporate governance has become part of tax planning.

The risk here is the opposite of the urgency of the other windows: because it is a recurring decision, it is postponed indefinitely. Each quarter of poorly designed distribution is tax that does not come back. The analysis is one of tax planning with a strong corporate component.

Go deeper: the new dividend taxation →

Window 6 — ICMS benefits and the FCBF by 2028

The ICMS fiscal war is being switched off with a fixed date. Under art. 128 of the ADCT (EC 132/2023), from 2029 to 2032 the ICMS rates and benefits are reduced progressively — set at 90% of their value in 2029, 80% in 2030, 70% in 2031 and 60% in 2032 — and the tax is extinguished in 2033 (art. 129 of the ADCT).

For the company that sustains margin on an onerous ICMS incentive — one granted for a fixed term and under condition, with investment or employment commitments —, EC 132/2023 created, in its art. 12, the Tax or Financial-Fiscal Benefits Compensation Fund (FCBF), with Union contributions totaling about R$ 160 billion (from 2025 to 2032) and compensation to beneficiaries between 2029 and 2032. The point of entry is administrative and has a deadline: Portaria RFB No. 635/2025 regulated qualification through the e-CAC, one request per benefit, by December 31, 2028, with analysis by state incentive program.

This window has its own cluster, with the three decision routes — migrating to the Manaus Free Trade Zone, qualifying for the FCBF, or repricing — detailed in the end of ICMS tax incentives. The recovery of transition credits speaks directly to the next window.

Go deeper: the end of ICMS incentives and the FCBF →

Window 7 — Credit balances: use it or lose it by 2032

Credit balances of ICMS, PIS and Cofins do not disappear in the transition, but the path to recover them changes and shortens. A credit not raised, not recorded or not approved in time becomes an asset of very low liquidity.

For ICMS, the credit balance existing on December 31, 2032, provided it is recorded and approved by the state tax authority, may be offset against IBS in up to 240 monthly installments, with IPCA adjustment from 2033 on and, when offset is unfeasible, a cash refund detailed by LC 227/2026, which regulated art. 134 of the ADCT. Approval requests filed during the transition phase undergo review by the state tax authorities, which have their own deadline. The practical consequence: raising, recording and obtaining approval before 2032 is what separates a liquid credit from a credit trapped for over a decade.

For PIS and Cofins, whose regime is extinguished in 2027, the credit balance migrates to offset CBS, under arts. 378 to 383 of LC 214/2025; where there is no sufficient CBS liability, offset against other federal taxes or a cash refund becomes available. Add to this the stock of credits from the last five years that many companies have not even mapped — a window that closes twice, by the five-year statute of limitations and by the extinction of the tax.

This is the window in which credit recovery — a service TaxUp performs on a recurring basis — ceases to be a routine optimization and becomes a race against the transition clock.

Go deeper: credit balances in the transition →

Window 8 — Litigation theories before the modulation

The extinction of PIS and Cofins in 2027 does not erase the past: the last five years remain recoverable, and the theories derived from excluding ICMS from the tax base (Tema 69, the “case of the century”) remain alive at the Supreme Court, still without a final and unappealable decision. This keeps open the classic window of mass litigation: filing before the judgment to protect the retroactive period, ahead of a possible modulation that limits effects to those already litigating.

The state of the art in mid-2026:

The deliberate inclusion of the lost theory (Tema 1.312) is intentional: serious tax planning does not sell every theory as a sure thing. An honest reading of the case law separates the real opportunity from off-the-shelf optimism. The assessment is one of tax litigation, always crossed with the company’s risk profile.

Go deeper: the litigation theories before the modulation →

Window 9 — Broad IBS and CBS credit: redesigning the supply chain

The full non-cumulativity of the new system makes creditable what is not today. Electricity, fuels, packaging, services and goods for use and consumption become, as a rule, generators of IBS and CBS credit — which, for many supply chains, reduces the effective burden, provided the company redesigns purchases, contracts and suppliers to capture the credit.

For the first time, the decision of whom to buy from has a direct and measurable tax effect: a supplier that generates a full credit comes to be worth more than a supplier that does not. The company also chooses between the regular regime, with a full real credit, and sector presumed-credit regimes, whose percentages are published annually. Preparing this engineering in 2026 and 2027 — input mapping, review of supply contracts, tax parameterization — is what turns the reform from a threat into a lever. The work is one of tax planning applied to the design of the supply chain.

Go deeper: the broad financial credit of IBS and CBS →

How to prioritize: the decision matrix

Not every company needs to act on all nine fronts. The right question is not “which windows exist?”, but “which apply to me and in what order?”. The matrix below crosses urgency (how close the deadline is) with potential impact (how much value is at stake) and helps to sequence.

The rule of thumb TaxUp applies: everything that falls due in 2026 goes on the immediate agenda (settlement, Simples election, federal incentives, the ITCMD window); what falls due by 2028–2032 goes into a structured project with method and documentation (FCBF, credit balances); what is structural and recurring goes into permanent redesign (broad credit, dividends, theories). The mistake to avoid is universal: treating everything as a 2033 agenda.

“The tax reform does not arrive in 2033. It arrives in installments, and the first one has already come due. The industrialist and the CFO who look only at the dual VAT turnover are silently losing the decisions that came due in 2026, 2028 and 2032.”

TaxUp Team · Tax Practice

Common mistakes

• Treating the reform as a 2033 event. Most of the windows fall due before then — some as early as 2026. The calendar is one of installments, not a single date.
• Leaving FCBF qualification for 2028. The analysis is by program and the first decision binds the following ones; entering late and poorly prepared risks the entire compensation.
• Forgetting credit balances. ICMS credit not approved and PIS/Cofins credit not mapped by the turnover become assets of very low liquidity.
• Staying in Simples without simulating. For those who sell B2B, not assessing the Simples Decision 2027 may cost clients from 2027 on, without warning.
• Postponing the dividend policy. Because it is a recurring decision, it is forever pushed back — and each poorly designed distribution under Lei 15.270 is tax that does not come back.
• Missing the ITCMD window. It has no notice and no alert: it closes when the state publishes the law that adopts the market base and full progressivity.
• Buying every theory as a sure thing. Litigation has real opportunities and theories already lost; confusing the two is off-the-shelf planning.

Frequently asked questions

What is still going to change

The calendar is set in law, but several parameters depend on regulation still under construction in 2026. Among others, the following remain open: the annual percentages of the presumed IBS and CBS credit, published each year; the state laws that will apply the new base and the progressivity of the ITCMD, still in progress in most states; the sub-legal acts on the operation of credit balances in the transition; and the outcome of the litigation theories at the STF. TaxUp tracks each regulatory act and reviews, case by case, the impact on companies’ planning.

Sources: EC 132/2023; LC 214/2025; LC 227/2026; LC 224/2025; Lei 15.270/2025; Lei 14.789/2023; Portaria RFB 635/2025; Notice PGDAU 6/2026 (PGFN); STF Temas 118 and 843; STJ Tema 1.312. Informational content; not legal advice.